Jumps Season - At The Races

Trendspotting: Trials

    We look at some of the key contest before Christmas and how their previous winners have historicially fared in the remainder of the campaign.
  • Trendspotting

By David Myers

One of the attractions of a new season is looking forward to the historic events that lie ahead in the racing calendar, in particular those that provided a rich source of future talent, just like a college or university churning out above-par graduates.

With that in mind, it could pay to keep close tabs on the following events throughout the next few months of the season, as the protagonists from these ‘key’ races historically went on to do well in subsequent races.

Saturday 12 November, Cheltenham, JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race)
2015 Result: 1.Wolf Of Windlesham 2.Coo Star Sivola 3.Romain De Senam (5 ran)

Since 1996: Following the winner of the Triumph Hurdle Trial during their next three outings resulted in 19 wins from 57 runs for a profit of £25 to level stakes.

Five of the 13 to have run in the Triumph Hurdle made the top three, with two winning the race itself courtesy of Katchit and Katarino.

The 2013 runner-up, Guitar Pete, won his next two races at 9/2, including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, before finishing third in the Triumph, while the 2014 runner-up, Hargam, won his next two outings before finishing third in the Triumph.

Last year’s winner, Wolf Of Windlesham, didn’t go for the Triumph, but won Sandown’s valuable bet365 juvenile handicap hurdle three runs later at 7/1, while runner-up, Coo Star Sivola, finished third in the Fred Winter.

Saturday 12 November, Cheltenham, BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap)
2015 Result: 1.Annacotty 2.Buywise 3.Sound Investment 4.Double Ross (20 ran)

Since 1996: Following the winner of the BetVictor Gold Cup during their next three outings resulted in 13 wins from 56 runs for a profit of +£10 to level stakes – last season’s winner, Annacotty, returned to land a Grade 3 handicap at 13/2 in January.

The third and fourth-placed runners also proved worthy of following as their combined subsequent three outings amassed 16 wins from 83 runs for a profit of +£29, including Long Run, who was third in the 2010 renewal before lifting the King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup, while the 2011 fourth, Aerial, went on to win the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury.

Sunday 13 November, Cheltenham, Greatwood Hurdle (Handicap)
2015 Result: 1.Old Guard 2.Superb Story 3.Waxies Dargle (17 ran)

Since 1996: Following the winner of the Greatwood Hurdle during their next three outings resulted in 17 wins from 52 runs for a profit of +£41 to level stakes.

Last year’s winner, Old Guard, returned to land the International Hurdle (7/1), while the runner-up, Superb Story, also came back to win the County Hurdle (8/1). In fact, seven of the last 12 Greatwood Hurdle winners scored next time, including odds of 7/1, 7/4, 12/1, 10/3 & 25/1.

Sunday 13 November, Cheltenham, Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial (Registered As The November Novices’ Chase)
2015 Result: 1.Garde La Victoire 2.Fox Norton 3.Calipto (4 ran)

Since 2000: Following the winner during their next three outings resulted in 18 wins from 44 runs.

Two of the last five winners, Captain Conan and Al Ferof both followed-up in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown, while in 2013, Dodging Bullets won the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase next time out – 10 of the last 16 winners won next time out.

The 2010 runner-up, Captain Chris, also returned to land the Arkle in March, while the 2011 second, Astracad, gained compensation in a handicap the following month – a theme that continued in 2012 when Sire De Grugy finished second here, before winning three of his next four races.

The 2015 runner-up, Vibrato Valtat, won both the aforementioned Henry VIII and Wayward Lad Novice Chases on his next two outings.

Sunday 20 November, Punchestown, Morgiana Hurdle
2015 Result: 1.Nichols Canyon 2.Faugheen (5 ran)

Since 1996: Following the winner of this superb Grade 1 hurdle during their next three outings resulted in 28 wins from 60 runs for a profit of +£20 to level stakes.

That record was enhanced in recent seasons by the mighty, Hurricane Fly, who won two of his next three outings, and the fact 12 of the last 15 winners obliged during their next two outings – including Nichols Canyon last season – in events like the Hatton’s Grace & Fighting Fifth Hurdles, speaks volumes for this race; last season’s runner-up, Faugheen, also won the Christmas Hurdle next time out.

Thursday 24 November, Newbury, Worcester Novices’ Chase
2015 Result: 1.Native River 2.Un Temps Pour Tout 3.Port Melon (7 ran)

Since 2003: Although winners of this cracking chase (which may be moved to a new fixture earlier in November this year) haven’t shown a profit during their subsequent three runs, they did produce a fantastic record next time out with 8 wins from 12 runs for a profit of +£9 to level stakes.

The latest Worcester winner, Native River, went onto land a Grade 1 at Aintree later in the season (11/2), while the runner-up, Un Temps Pour Tout, took a Grade 3 handicap at the Cheltenham Festival (11/1).

Friday 25 November, Newbury, Fuller’s London Pride Novices’ Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices’ Chase)
2015 Result: 1.Three Musketeers 2.Activial 3.Lunique (7 ran)

Since 1996: Following the winner of this Grade 2 novices’ chase during their next three outings resulted in 23 wins from 62 runs for a profit of +£11 to level stakes, with the 2014 renewal providing the ultimate boost in Coneygree landing his next three outings, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Coneygree’s win at Kempton a month after here also made it eight next time out wins from 18 winners since 1998.

The runners-up proved profitable too, with 14 wins from 42 runs for a profit of +£40. Court In Motion in 2012 the latest to score subsequently in a Grade 2 at Lingfield, while four of the nine to take up engagements at the Cheltenham Festival also made the top three, including Looks Like Trouble, who took jump racing’s Blue Riband in 2000.

Saturday 26 November, Newbury, Long Distance Hurdle
2015 Result: 1.Thistlecrack 2.Deputy Dan 3.Cole Harden (5 ran)

Since 1996: This strong staying event once again lived up to it’s reputation last season when Thistlecrack won his next four outings, including the World Hurdle, as did the mighty Big Buck’s in previous seasons.

The record of past Long Distance winners during their next three outings now stands at 24 wins from 52 runs for a profit of +£16, while recent winners also did well next time out, with seven following-up since 2003, including Thistlecrack, Big Buck’s (three times), Inglis Drever and Baracouda (twice).

The 2014 runner-up, Cole Harden, also added strength by landing the World Hurdle three runs later at 14/1.

Sunday 4 December, Fairyhouse, Royal Bond Novice Hurdle
2015 Result: 1.Long Dog 2.Bachasson 3.Gunnery Sergeant (5 ran)

Since 1996: Long term, it paid to keep tabs with the winner from here, as 24 subsequent wins came via 56 runs for a profit of +£23 to levels during their next three outings, including both Long Dog and Nichols Canyon in the last two seasons, who went onto take Grade 1 novices at Leopardstown.

Nichols Canyon also won twice more after Cheltenham, landing Grade 1s at Aintree (3/1) and Punchestown (4/5).

Sunday 4 December, Fairyhouse, Hatton’s Grace Hurdle
2015 Result: 1.Arctic Fire 2.Alpha Des Obeaux 3.Gwencily Berbas (7 ran)

Since 1996: Although a modest profit of +£5 was accumulated by winners during their next three outings, they still amassed a total of 29 subsequent wins via 56 runs.

The 2014 renewal saw yet another strong edition, in which the winner, Lieutenant Colonel, followed-up at odds of 3/1 in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.

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