Jumps Season - At The Races

Trendspotting: Trainers

    First up are the statistics often the first port-of-call for many punters weighing up a bet, and that’s the overall records of trainers.
  • Trendspotting

By David Myers

Welcome to the 2016/17 Jumps Trendspotting Guide, in which I will be looking back at recent seasons in the search of some winner-finding angles.

We’ll look at everything from early-season top trials to profit-friendly sires and even some tasty Placepots that paid well during the autumn.

But first up are the statistics often the first port-of-call for many punters weighing up a bet, and that’s the overall records of jockeys.

PAUL NICHOLLS

Last five seasons: (GB only)
2015/16: 122-568 (21%)
2014/15: 124-518 (24%)
2013/14: 118-587 (20%)
2012/13: 131-565 (23%)
2011/12: 138-598 (23%)

Most profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Ayr (8-28 +£28)
Haydock (chase 11-24 +£19)
Wincanton (hurdle & NHF 52-146 +£18)
Cheltenham (45-345 +£17)
Newbury (chase 18-76 +£16)

Overview: Having wrested the trainer’s championship back last season, Paul Nicholls will need his team at their very best if seeing off another challenge from Willie Mullins.

From a punting angle, those of Nicholls who were dropped in trip by 1f to 4f from last time came in at 163-1580 (+£41), while runners wearing new headgear for the first-time in Britain and Ireland struck at 91-369 (+£77) – Solar Impulse had the cheekpieces replaced by blinkers when landing Cheltenham’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase at 28/1 in March.

It’s also worth checking which track the yard’s runners arrived from last time out, as those who came via the following venues all showed a nice profit: Exeter 32-117 (+£50), Haydock 18-56 (+£29), and Warwick 16-37 (+£25).

NICKY HENDERSON

2015/16: 81-414 (20%)
2014/15: 129-500 (26%)
2013/14: 124-514 (24%)
2012/13: 125-509 (25%)
2011/12: 167-672 (27%)

Most profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Kempton (52-183 +£49)
Doncaster (hurdle 22-53 +£43)
Sandown (hurdle 23-77 +£30)
Aintree (27-141 +£29)

Overview: A rare below-par season for Nicky Henderson last time from which he’ll be looking to bounce back during the coming months and where he’ll be relying on Mr N de Boinville to continue racking up the profits (92-320, +£53). The pair have now recorded a profit in each of their last five years and combined for over 15 winners during the summer.

As for other areas in which Henderson excelled, then his skill with 6yos really stood out for a return of 156-620 (+£67), with the likes of Kayf Grace winning Aintree’s Grade 2 mares' bumper at 14/1 in April. Elsewhere, Henderson did well in Listed events (27-148, +£21) and maiden races (79-218, +£37), while his runners officially rated 127-132 delivered at 51-220 (+£52).

PHILIP HOBBS

2015/16: 113-523 (22%)
2014/15: 102-552 (18%)
2013/14: 106-542 (20%)
2012/13: 68-504 (13%)
2011/12: 73-512 (14%)

Hobbs’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Newbury (18-102 +£66)
Stratford (chase 15-43 +£34)
Worcester (chase 9-36 +£29)

Overview: As hinted here 12 months ago, Philip Hobbs had a superb 2015/16 season, in the process providing a helping hand to his long-term jockey, Richard Johnson, in securing a first jockeys’ title. The pair now boast a profitable five-year record of 287-1332 (+£26).

Hobbs was again effective in placing his runners last season, especially those he chose to drop in class, as they appreciated the easier task to win at 129-554 (+£59) during the last five years, while those that ran last time out at Aintree (19-82, +£29) and Kempton (23-106, +£35) also provided further profits, as did his runners officially rated 124-126 (27-140, +£37).

DAVID PIPE

2015/16: 80-571 (14%)
2014/15: 116-580 (20%)
2013/14: 90-591 (15%)
2012/13: 104-624 (17%)
2011/12: 101-632 (16%)

Pipe’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Haydock (hurdle 7-44 +£37)
Wincanton (chase 10-33 +£24)
Plumpton (13-43 +£16)
Perth (11-24 +£14)

Overview: Last season has to go down as disappointing for David Pipe, as it was his lowest tally recorded during the last five seasons, while his record in Graded races during the last 12 months was just 1-46.

However, with such firepower at his disposal, Pipe can be expected to hit back, especially over long distances of 3m-3m1½f (96-467, +£141) where he struck with Un Temps Pour Tout at the Cheltenham Festival (11/1), while this season has already seen Pipe send numerous winners out over 3m-3m1½f, including at odds of 7/2, 4/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 17/2. Elsewhere, Pipe did well with fresh horses given a 76-179 day rest period (50-238, +£113).

ALAN KING

2015/16: 68-403 (17%)
2014/15: 75-448 (17%)
2013/14: 75-444 (17%)
2012/13: 60-419 (14%)
2011/12: 82-253 (16%)

King’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Ascot (10-63 +£30)
Bangor (12-42 +£18)
Stratford (12-47 +£13)

Overview: Another of the bigger yards to have seen their winner tally go down last season, though Alan King’s solid 17% strike-rate did remain in tact despite 16 losers at the Cheltenham Festival. There have been positives signs during the summer, with his strike-rate from May to mid-September showing at 31% (25-81, +£9).

As for areas in King returned a profit for punters, then maiden races were fruitful at 42-161 (+£62), while those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson struck at 117-540 (+£64).

JONJO O’NEILL

2015/16: 81-560 (14%)
2014/15: 104-634 (16%)
2013/14: 134-810 (17%)
2012/13: 90-705 (13%)
2011/12: 97-649 (15%)

O’Neill’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Huntingdon (23-83 +£15)
Stratford (20-107 +£13)
Warwick (16-112 +£10)

Overview: Yet another of the top trainers to have experienced a blip last season, which came courtesy of a bad start to the year up until March when producing a return of just 7-125 (-£85) – not to mention Jonjo O’Neill’s first season without Tony McCoy.

Things improved following that disappointing period, and O’Neill’s runners should be under consideration once more during the coming winter, especially those ridden by Aidan Coleman, as they pair struck up a healthy partnership since April (22-92, +£34).

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

2015/16: 72-482 (15%)
2014/15: 73-488 (15%)
2013/14: 77-559 (14%)
2012/13: 74-542 (14%)
2011/12: 70-579 (12%)

Twiston-Davies's profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Newbury (hurdle 8-34 +£56)
Uttoxeter (25-117 +£27)
Leicester (17-68 +£21)
Ffos Las (28-133 +£19)

Overview: A case of consistency personified for Nigel Twiston-Davies last term, where he was again in profit during the month of October, a period he now shows a five-year record of 42-215 (+£26). Further clues can be gained via the venue the yard’s runners ran last time out at Warwick (20-124, +£27), Uttoxeter (21-108, +£9) and Kempton (11-49, +£20).

VENETIA WILLIAMS

2015/16: 56-419 (13%)
2014/15: 53-441 (12%)
2013/14: 86-574 (15%)
2012/13: 90-533 (17%)
2011/12: 52-401 (13%)

Williams’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Ascot (chase 9-57 +£43)
Bangor (chase 11-42 +£19)
Exeter (15-76 +£18)

Overview: There are a number of areas in which backers should look carefully for Venetia Williams’s runners, especially during the upcoming month of November, where her five-year record reads at an impressive 55-308 (+£52) – a record that may coincide with her fresh runners returning from an absence of 151 days or longer (58-307, +£85). Meanwhile, Williams’s runners officially rated 110-116 also showed a profit at 44-251 (+£19), along with those dropped in class by 1 grade 71-375 (+£26).

DAN SKELTON

2015/16: 104-529 (20%)
2014/15: 73-377 (19%)
2013/14: 27-171 (16%)
2012/13: N/A
2011/12: N/A

Skelton’s most profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Southwell (16-61 +£9)
Ludlow (11-51 +£4)
Wetherby (9-25 +£4)

Overview: Dan Skelton is certainly making an impact on the jumps scene, courtesy of improving seasonal tallies of 27 in 2014, 73 in 2015, and 104 last season. However, the bookies have been quick to latch onto Skelton’s talents, with his level stakes return since 2013/4 showing at -£287. With that in mind, punters will need to be very selective when considering one from this yard, though Skelton’s record with 6yos remains solid at 62-241, (+£8).

WILLIE MULLINS (Ire only)

2015/16: 185-557 (33%)
2014/15: 187-554 (34%)
2013/14: 185-665 (28%)
2012/13: 193-595 (32%)
2011/12: 138-498 (28%)

Mullins’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Gowran Park (46-118 +£17)
Clonmel (34-86 +£16)
Galway (Hurdle & NHF 24-77 +£15)

Overview: British trainers may quake in their boots once again should Willie Mullins decide to throw down another challenge to the trainer’s title, having pushed Paul Nicholls all the way last term. Indeed, Mullins’ figures in Britain are on the march, both in terms of winners and prize-money during the last five seasons:

Mullins in Britain

2015/16: 27-159 (£2,341,735)
2014/15: 16-91 (£1,385,931)
2013/14: 11-68 (£855,396)
2012/13: 6-51 (£688,531)
2011/12: 5-52 (£327,673)

While each of those years returned a loss, there were a few areas in which Mullins profited in Britain, including over distance of 2m1f to 2m4½f at 29-108 (+£34).

As for Mullins’s main source of winners in Ireland, then his last two seasons on home shores surprisingly returned a level stakes profit of +£41 in 2014/15 and +£14 in 2015/16, while the current 2016/17 stood in profit heading into the autumn.

A closer inspection shows that Mullins returned an impressive record with 4-5yos at 440-1119 (39%) for a return of +£175, while those that had yet to appear for the yard or won last time out showed at 431-990 (+£86). It’s worth noting, though, that Mullins’s last time out winners running in a handicap showed a lower strike-rate and loss at 15-86 (17%, -£14), compared to his non-handicap last time out winners at 297-626 (47%, +£57).

It could also be worth noting any of Mullins’s runners from Leopardstown last time out (55-163, +£22), while on the jockey front, Paul Townend offered value when in the saddle at 141-509 (+£20), as did both Danny Mullins (17-72 +£17) and Emmet Mullins (15-78 +£34).

JESSICA HARRINGTON (Ire only)

2015/16: 47-244 (19%)
2014/15: 31-260 (12%)
2013/14: 35-233 (15%)
2012/13: 28-252 (11%)
2011/12: 34-350 (10%)

Harrington’s profitable tracks (last five seasons):
Punchestown (32-171 +£100)
Limerick (chase 7-18 +£35)
Gowran Park (13-57 +£26)

Overview: An excellent 2015/16 season for Jessica Harington with 47 winners – her highest since 2008/09 – and with 17 already on the board this term, she looks set for another good season, in fact, following her runners during the last two seasons returned a clear level stakes profit of +£60.

A breakdown of her performers during the last five seasons also highlights some key areas for punters, including non-handicaps (17% +£26), where Harrington struck three times more often than in handicaps (6% -£125). Chases were also kind at 47-254 (+£38), with beginners chases proving best (26-96 +£63), while it may also pay to note of her runners next spring, more so in April/May where she bloomed at 40-270 (+£74).

GORDON ELLIOTT (Ire only)

2015/16: 123-791 (16%)
2014/15: 92-533 (17%)
2013/14: 56-436 (13%)
2012/13: 54-329 (16%)
2011/12: 40-354 (11%)

Elliott’s profitable tracks (last five years):
Punchestown (chase 19-84 +£19)
Navan (chase 8-44 +£19)
Tramore (chase 7-26 +£17)

Overview: Despite having been around for a number of seasons, Gordon Elliott is most certainly a trainer still on the up, having recorded a career best of 92 winners two season ago, before topping that with a first century last term – Elliott also leads the current Irish trainers’ table with over 50 winners this season. It also speaks volumes that Elliott’s strengths came in all areas, though for punters looking for an specific angle, then those making their debut/first outing for Elliott should be noted (29-150 (+£16).

HENRY DE BROMHEAD (Ire only)

2015/16: 48-296 (16%)
2014/15: 49-327 (15%)
2013/14: 48-315 (15%)
2012/13: 32-220 (15%)
2011/12: 34-181 (19%)

De Bromhead’s profitable tracks (last five years):
Down Royal (10-33 +£23)
Killarney (chase 10-46 +£16)
Limerick (14-64 +£11)

Overview: It was another solid season for Henry de Bromhead, and he has also started this one brightly with over 20 winners. The yard did well with older runners, especially 9-12yos that delivered at 30-141 (+£31).

The Improvers

Kerry Lee made a big impact in training 23 winners in her debut season, which caught the bookies out to the tune of +£39 to level stakes. Lee is certainly a trainer to note in chases (25-92, +£70), especially when Jamie Moore is booked (13-67 +£21).

Harry Whittington also racked up the profits for punters in recent seasons, finishing with figures of 8-42 (+£22) two seasons ago, prior to 21-91 (+£20) last term. Look out for Whittington in Class 4 hurdles (20-77 +£61).

Ben Pauling was another with a career best last season (26-155 +£58), and his relationship with Mr N de Boinville (24-112 (+£76) is one to look out for, as are the partnerships between trainer, Stuart Edmunds (16-93 +£25 in his second season) and jockeys, Joshua Moore and Paddy Brennan.

Other handlers to note include are Kenneth Slack, who accumulated an impressive tally of 23-69 (+£48) in just his second season and is already +£30 in profit in 2016/17, while Johnny Farrelly recorded a career best of 17-177 last season before bagging over 10 winners this term.

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