Jumps Season - At The Races

Trendspotting: Sires

    We look at the most winner producing sires over the last few years, along with the conditions over which their best profits emerged, plus what sires proved prolific in Grade 1 races and the sires that performed well at specific courses.
  • Trendspotting

One of the most underestimated factors investors tend to take into account when placing a bet is a horse’s breeding. Despite not being overly relevant to the majority of backers, this area can prove to be highly informative, especially when a horse encounters conditions it has never faced before (trip & ground), as the unknown can often represent value in the market.

Therefore, the list below highlights the top 10 winner producing sires over jumps during the last few years, along with conditions over which their best profits emerged.

January 2016-September 2017

Sire W-R

Presenting 299-2506
Best trip/ground: 1m6f-2m5f/soft to heavy
Best tracks: Doncaster 13-53; Fairyhouse 12-114; Southwell: 11-55
Best trainers: W Mullins 24-85; G Elliott 20-142; J O’Neill 19-113

King's Theatre 282-2050
Best trip/ground: 1m7f-2m3f/heavy
Best tracks: Southwell 13-40; Cheltenham 12-100; Fontwell 11-50
Best trainers: C Tizzard 16-129; W Mullins 15-43; G Elliott 12-56

Kayf Tara 267-1906
Best trip/ground: 2m6f-3m1f/soft to heavy
Best tracks: Southwell 14-57; Cheltenham 12-86; Uttoxeter 11-104
Best trainers: P Hobbs 16-75; T Vaughan 13-67; N Twiston-Davies 12-62

Milan 253-2217
Best trip/ground: 3m1f-3m6f/good & good to firm
Best tracks: Uttoxeter 12-65; Warwick 11-59; Cheltenham 10-61
Best trainers: P Nicholls 13-31; G Elliott 12-50; J O’Neill 11-55

Beneficial 246-2468
Best trip/ground: 2m3f-2m5f/good to soft
Best tracks: Fairyhouse 11-112; Worcester 10-66; Kilbeggan 10-61
Best trainers: G Elliott 14-100; N Meade 13-77; N Henderson 13-58

Oscar 228-1833
Best trip/ground: 1m7f-2m7f/good to soft
Best tracks: Market Rasen 12-52; Sedgefield 10-30; Huntingdon 8-34
Best trainers: P Hobbs 11-44; N Henderson 10-39; G Elliott 10-52

Flemensfirth 222-1824
Best trip/ground: 2m7f-3m2f/soft to heavy
Best tracks: Fairyhouse 10-76; Punchestown 9-80; Navan 8-63
Best trainers: W Mullins 12-36; D Skelton 9-50; H De Bromhead 8-33

Westerner 205-1559
Best trip/ground: 2m1f-2m4f/soft to heavy
Best track: Uttoxeter 10-55
Best trainers: W Greatrex 10-47

Midnight Legend 184-1258
Best trip/ground: 2m3f-2m4f/good & good to firm
Best tracks: Southwell 13-70; Fontwell 10-57; Market Rasen 9-46
Best trainers: A King 19-76; C Longsdon 8-59; T George 8-25

Shantou 131-852
Best trip/ground: 2m7f-3m/good and good to firm
Best tracks: Worcester 6-29; Downpatrick 6-21
Best trainers: G Elliott 10-31; W Mullins 9-25

There is plenty of food for thought to be taken from the above list ahead of the coming season, and several sires really jump out. First, is King's Theatre, whose progeny excelled on heavy ground, both in terms of strike-rate and profit (42-200 +£43) – Classic Theatre and Miss Eyecatcher were two recent winning examples in September.

Kayf Tara is another sire who should be tracked, as his progressive number of winners continues to rise, going from 10 winners in 2006 to 169 in 2016. Two trainers who profited from this sire’s rise were Alan King (11-32 +£8) and Nicky Henderson (11-34 +£17).

Elsewhere, Milan’s runners were all about stamina and came into their own when facing 2m6f or further where their strike-rate was 13%, compared to 10% over shorter, while Beneficial’s stock did very well over the specific distance of 2m5f-2m5½f (33-206 +£39).

While the above leaderboard of distinguished sires will again supply stacks of winners during the 2017/18 jumps season, there were some “lesser-known” names that were underestimated in the market, as their runners recorded a blind profit during the last 12 months over jumps.

Yeats 85-504 (+£85)
Best trip & ground: 1m7½f to 2m½f (31-190, +£112); good & good to soft (50-296, +£78)

Network 47-236 (-£15)
Best trip & ground: 2m-2m1f (25-81, +£16); good & good to soft (32-135, +£15)

Yeats’s star is rising over jumps, courtesy of an increasing number of winners during the last four years (0-20-48-64), and his runners have plenty of speed over the shorter trips, while Network’s runners have been around for a bit longer and showed a tidy profit on decent ground.

However, for backers seeking breeding clues in Grade 1 races this coming season, then the following list of sires could be worth keeping on side, as they proved prolific in supplying well over 130 Grade 1 winners during the last five years.

Top 10 Grade 1 winning sires (2013-2017)

King's Theatre 25-169 (-£9)
Oscar 19-149 (+£17)
Kayf Tara 15-107 (+£18)
Milan 14-81 (+£15)
Presenting 14-185 (-£76)
Robin Des Champs 12-49 (+£1)
Montjeu 11-52 (-£24)
Authorized 10-39 (+£31)
Saddler Maker 8-35 (-£5)
Voix Du Nord 8-47 (-£21)

The final list is also worth checking throughout the jumps season, as it highlights sires who performed well at specific courses in terms of profit (minimum of 10 winners required).

Profitable track sires (2013-2017)

Aintree: Kayf Tara 11-97 (+£50)
Ascot: King's Theatre 11-75 (+9)
Ayr: Bob Back 7-35 (+£7)
Bangor: King's Theatre 17-75 (+£23)
Carlisle: Kayf Tara 13-46 (+£25)
Cartmel: Presenting 11-55 (+£45)
Catterick: Cloudings 7-19 (+£14)
Cheltenham: Robin Des Champs 11-59 (+£42)
Chepstow: Old Vic 12-86 (+£11)
Doncaster: Milan 10-87 (+£51)
Exeter: King's Theatre 26-138 (+£24)
Fakenham: Midnight Legend 16-64 (+£19)
Ffos Las: Kayf Tara 25-111 (+£37)
Fontwell: Milan 25-127 (+£7)
Haydock: Kayf Tara 10-64 (+£7)
Hexham: 11-93 (+£37)
Huntingdon: Oscar 18-90 (+£27)
Kelso: Presenting 18-104 (+£6)
Kempton: Beneficial 9-75 (+£14)
Leicester: Kayf Tara 15-60 (+£53)
Ludlow: King's Theatre 24-115 (+£9)
Market Rasen: Oscar 24-123 (+£18)
Musselburgh: Beneficial 11-71 (+£5)
Newbury: Oscar 16-91 (+£68)
Newcastle: Midnight Legend 7-33 (+£2)
Newton Abbot: King's Theatre 17-106 (+£2)
Perth: Milan 15-84 (+£6)
Plumpton: Beneficial 12-66 (+£11)
Sandown: King's Theatre 13-91 (+£24)
Sedgefield: Oscar 14-62 (+£1)
Southwell: Kayf Tara 27-162 (+£19)
Stratford: Beneficial 14-116 (+£11)
Taunton: Milan 25-110 (+£54)
Towcester: Kayf Tara 18-108 (+£2)
Uttoxeter: Milan 31-170 (+£72)
Warwick: Milan 22-127 (+£26)
Wetherby: Beneficial 17-87 (+£6)
Wincanton: Milan 13-97 (+£13)
Worcester: Shantou 11-50 (+£27)

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