Jumps Season - At The Races

Trendspotting: Sires

    We look at the most winner producing sires over the last few years, along with the conditions over which their best profits emerged, plus what sires proved prolific in Grade 1 races and the sires that performed well at specific courses.
  • Trendspotting

By David Myers

One of the most underestimated factors investors tend to take into account when placing a bet is a horse’s breeding.

Despite not being overly relevant to the majority of backers, this area can prove to be highly informative, especially when a horse encounters conditions it has never faced before (trip & ground), as the unknown can often represent value in the market.

Therefore, the list below highlights 10 of the most winner producing sires over jumps during the last few years, along with a pick of conditions over which their best profits emerged.

January 2015 to September 2016

Presenting (300-2384)
Best ground/trip - 1m6f-2m5f; Good/softer 
Best tracks - Fairyhouse: 11-79, Southwell: 9-59, Ayr: 9-31 
Best trainers - W Mullins: 26-98, G Elliott: 22-116, N Henderson: 20-81

Kings Theatre (279-1999)
Best ground/trip - 2m-3m1f; Soft to heavy/heavy 
Best tracks - Warwick: 15-62, Wincanton: 11-41, Kempton: 10-50
Best trainers - C Tizzard 22-131, P Hobbs: 17-80, W Mullins: 15-42
 
Beneficial (263-2418) 
Best ground/trip -2m-3m; Good/softer 
Best tracks - Worcester: 14-63, Fairyhouse: 13-95, Southwell: 11-61  
Best trainers - N Meade: 12-56, J O'Neill: 12-65, G Elliott: 11-77

Kayf Tara (259-1933)
Best ground/trip - 1m7f-2m4f; Good/softer 
Best tracks - Cheltenham: 14-85 Southwell: 12-67 Uttoxeter: 11-88  
Best trainers - P Hobbs: 22-78, C Tizzard: 12-44, N Twiston-Davies: 10-46

Milan (258-2030)  
Best ground/trip - 2m3f or further; Good/softer
Best tracks - Exeter: 11-55, Uttoxeter: 10-54, Kelso: 9-31 
Best trainers - H de Bromhead:10-43, P Nicholls: 10-28, J Harrington: 9-34

Flemensfirth (246-1914)  
Best ground/trip -2m3f-3m2f; Good to soft/softer 
Best tracks - Uttoxeter: 12-58, Sedgefield: 10-34, Huntingdon: 9-40 
Best trainers - J O Neill: 17-5,4 D Skelton: 11-51, K Bailey: 8-15

Oscar (213-1729)  
Best ground/trip -2m-3m; Good to soft/softer 
Best tracks - Punchestown: 13-89, Market Rasen: 9-35, Navan: 8-57 
Best trainers - M Hammond: 9-30, N Henderson: 8-30, P Hobbs:
 
Westerner (171-1358)  
Best ground/trip -2m1f-2m7f; Good/softer 
Best tracks - Fairyhouse: 10-70, Southwell: 8-30, Down Royal: 7-30 
Best trainers - W Mullins: 7-10, M Scudamore: 5-12, Mrs S Smith: 5-17

Midnight Legend (147-1074)
Best ground/trip - 1m7f-2m6f; Good/softer 
Best tracks - Fontwell: 10-57, Taunton: 9-41, Worcester: 8-42 
Best trainers - A King: 12-67, N Mulholland: 6-40, A Honeyball: 6-19

Shantou (110-779)  
Best ground/trip - 2m4f-3m; Good/softer
Best tracks - Kilbeggan: 7-2,5 Gowran Park: 5-23, Warwick: 5-26 
Best trainers - W Mullins: 9-21, N Mulholland: 6-19, A King: 5-14

Old Vic (104-736)  
Best ground/trip - 2m4f-3m1f; Good/soft (not heavy) 
Best tracks - Hexham: 7-18, Chepstow: 5-29, Cheltenham: 5-36 
Best trainers - N Twiston-Davies: 10-27, P Hobbs: 8-24

Presenting continues to head the leaderboard having sired an incredible 300 winners during the last 21 months, and while his progeny are all rounders, those in bumpers did come out in profit at 40-239 (+£28).

Kings Theatre also has a prominent position in the leaderboard and produces runners who go exceptionally well in testing ground. Indeed, his progeny on soft to heavy or heavy since January 2015 produced an impressive return of 62-295 (+£138).

Beneficial’s stock have an overall lower strike-rate than the other leading jumps sires, but following them over distances of 2m5½f-2m7f showed figures of 41-270 (+£58), though one of the most interesting sires to take note of is Kayf Tara, whose numbers have continued to rise over the jumps during the last decade:

Kayf Tara jumps winners

Year - Wins
2016 - 110
2015 - 151
2014 - 125
2013 - 108
2012 - 58
2011 - 82
2010 - 48
2009 - 55
2008 - 68
2007 - 27
2006 - 10

The above table suggests another explosive season of winners could lie ahead for Kayf Tara’s runners, and certain trainers have latched onto his progress, with Philip Hobbs training them for a return of 22-78 (+£22).

Elsewhere, punters looking to follow Westerner’s runners may want to stick to distances of 2m5f-2m6f, as they showed at a healthy 26-126 (+£65).

While the above leaderboard of distinguished sires will once again supply stacks of winners during the 2016/17 jumps season, there are some “lesser-known” names that appear to have been underestimated in the market, as their runners recorded a blind profit during the last 12 months.

Galileo 34-268 (+£70)
Best trip and ground: 2m-2m4f (25-180, +£82); good (15-125, +£58)

Manduro 14-88 (+£62)
Best trip and ground: 2m-2m4f (10-63, +£54); good, good/soft or soft (12-63, +£48)

Morozov 24-158 (+£61)
Best trip and ground: 2m4f-3m1f (15-74, +£80); good to soft or softer (16-96 +£67)

Alderbrook 20-183 (+£56)
Best trip and ground: 2m4f-2m7f (14-99, +£110); good (8-68, +£32)

Revoque 17-115 (+£55)
Best trip and ground: 1m7f-2m4f (12-64, +£63); good to soft or softer (14-83, +£60)

Spadoun 17-124 (+£50)
Best trip and ground: 2m5f-3m1f (8-34, +£92); good (8-39, +£47)

But, for backers seeking breeding clues in Grade 1 races this coming season, then the following list of sires could be worth keeping on side, as they proved prolific in supplying well over 130 Grade 1 winners during the last five years.

Top 10 Grade 1 winning sires (2012-2016)

Kings Theatre 26-168 (-£27)
Oscar 17-148 (+£16)
Milan 16-80 (+£11)
Presenting 15-157 (-£19)
Montjeu 14-57 (-£29)
Kayf Tara 12-92 (+£8)
Robin Des Champs 12-55 (-£14)
Flemensfirth 11-101 (-£15)
Network 10-33 (-£13)

The final list is also worth checking throughout the jumps season, as it highlights which sires performed well at specific courses in terms of profit (a minimum of 10 winners required).

Track sires (2012-2016)

Aintree: Milan 10-58 (+£22); Kayf Tara 10-88 (+£48)
Ascot: Dom Alco 6-20 (+£17)
Ayr: Presenting 12-57 (+£3)
Bangor: Kings Theatre 16-69 (+£10)
Carlisle: Kayf Tara 11-42 (+£22); Oscar 11-52 (+£10)
Cartmel: Flemensfirth 10-39 (+£5); Authorized 9-25 (+£47)
Catterick: Cloudings 7-18 (+£14)
Cheltenham: Westerner 10-94 (+£36)
Chepstow: Kayf Tara 23-147 (+£22)
Doncaster: Milan 10-83 (+£63)
Exeter: Kings Theatre 27-121 (+£30)
Fakenham: Midnight Legend 18-64 (+£30)
Ffos Las: Kayf Tara 20-100 (+£6)
Fontwell: Milan 25-122 (+£18)
Haydock: Beneficial 11-70 (+£8)
Hexham: Beneficial 11-87 (+£35); Old Vic 10-42 (+£15)
Huntingdon: Oscar 17-86 (+£27); Milan 15-80 (+£15)
Kelso: Overbury 11-51 (+£59)
Kempton: Beneficial 10-73 (+£21)
Leicester: Kayf Tara 13-49 (+£15)
Ludlow: Kings Theatre 22-108 (+£5); Midnight Legend 16-88 (+£26)
Market Rasen: Beneficial 22-104 (+£16); Flemensfirth 16-74 (+£6)
Musselburgh: Beneficial 11-69 (+£9)
Newbury: Oscar 16-94 (+£33)
Newcastle: Westerner 6-20 (+£9)
Newton Abbot: Kings Theatre 19-98 (+£4)
Perth: Old Vic 9-39 (+£23); Gold Well 9-20 (+£36)
Plumpton: Beneficial 13-63 (+£18)
Sandown: Presenting 12-60 (+£11); Midnight Legend 8-32 (+£23)
Sedgefield: Flemensfirth 19-75 (+£4); Alflora 17-82 (+£41)
Southwell: Oscar 19-121 (+£37)
Stratford: Presenting 21-117 (+£13); Kayf Tara 13-96 (+£129)
Taunton: Milan 26-99 (+£82)
Towcester: Kayf Tara 18-109 (+£15); Milan 14-75 (+£10)
Uttoxeter: Milan 30-151 (+£70)
Warwick: Shantou 9-35 (+£17)
Wetherby: Flemensfirth 17-101 (+£14)
Wincanton: Oscar 18-119 (+£12)
Worcester: Midnight Legend 17-118 (+£1)

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