Jumps Season - At The Races

Trendspotting: Jockeys

    There is no getting away from the fact that a jockey, and the decisions they make, are one of the most important factors in determining the outcome of a race.
  • Trendspotting

RICHARD JOHNSON

2016/17: 189-1026 (18%)
2015/16: 235-1044 (23%)
2014/15: 153-861 (18%)
2013/14: 155-831 (19%)
2012/13: 133-830 (16%)

Johnson’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
P Hobbs (265-1191 +£74); C Longsdon (37-157 +£9); A King (16-44 +£8)
Johnson’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Stratford (44-184, +£34); Newbury (23-124 +£82); Sandown (17-82 +£34)

Overview: It was a second Jockey Championship title for Richard Johnson last season, when once again his long-term partner Philip Hobbs supplied numerous winners. Although the pair showed an overall loss, following the Johnson/Hobbs combo in non-Grade 1 races showed a profit at 349-1595 (+£18), while those at 20/1 or bigger offered value at 7-102 (+£93). Similarly, there was also value in following the partnership’s runners that were beaten over 2l or more last time (219-1052 +£29).

BRIAN HUGHES

2016/17: 139-837 (17%)
2015/16: 103-735 (14%)
2014/15: 106-654 (16%)
2013/14: 86-617 (14%)
2012/13: 44-455 (10%)

Hughes’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
M Jefferson (chase 41-190 +£41); P Griffin (12-45 +£18); M Sowersby (10-75 +£23)
Hughes’ profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Sedgefield (52-257 +£29); Hexham (chase 16-65 +£16); Perth (chase 13-69 +£24)

Overview: It was another step in the right direction for Brian Hughes last season when he recorded a career-best tally. The fact Hughes remains such an all-rounder makes it hard to pinpoint specific areas of profit bar both the trainers and tracks above, though it could pay to look out for the occasions he gets down to 10st for a ride at 17-134 (+£42)

SAM TWISTON-DAVIES

2016/17: 128-647 (20%)
2015/16: 128-741 (17%)
2014/15: 145-759 (19%)
2013/14: 115-774 (15%)
2012/13: 87-615 (14%)

Twiston-Davies’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
N Twiston-Davies (NHF 19-105 +£9); P Nicholls (NHF 11-33 +£16); R Newland (NHF 13-53 +£7)
Twiston-Davies’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Ffos Las (30-144 +£28); Uttoxeter (chase 11-49 +£37); Market Rasen (chase 10-30 +£12)

Overview: Sam Twiston-Davies seems to have firmly established himself in the “one-hundred club” following another 128 winners last term, and his ability in bumpers makes him a jockey to look out for in such events – more so when riding for the above yards.

NOEL FEHILY

2016/17: 116-523 (22%)
2015/16: 122-663 (18%)
2014/15: 85-477 (18%)
2013/14: 127-596 (21%)
2012/13: 64-389 (16%)

Fehily’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
H Fry (86-360 +£3); N Mulholland (hurdle 32-150 +£10); P Nicholls (16-57 +£13)
Fehily’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Southwell (20-67 +£21); Warwick (18-86 +£27); Wetherby (18-52 +£16)

Overview: Noel Fehily boasted the joint-top strike-rate of any of the top jockey to have ridden more than 50 winners last season, and continues to offer value when riding runners around the 9/1 to 22/1 mark (54-663 +£63). Fehily also showed a good pair of hands on horses making their racecourse debut (or UK debut) at 41-209 (+£47).

AIDAN COLEMAN

2016/17: 118-731 (16%)
2015/16: 129-741 (17%)
2014/15: 82-653 (13%)
2013/14: 97-647 (15%)
2012/13: 89-575 (15%)

Coleman’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
J O’Neill (23-105 +£23); D Evans (11-58 +£41)
Coleman’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Stratford (33-132 +£50); Newton Abbot (19-90 +£56); Ascot (15-91 +£27)

Overview: Aidan Coleman’s followers were treated to a second consecutive century in 2016/17, and there is every chance of a third ton with him already around the 50 mark this season. Coleman has shown a good knack in both maidens (51-282 +£27) and beginners chases (18-74 +£39).

HARRY SKELTON

2016/17: 101-515 (20%)
2015/16: 101-452 (22%)
2014/15: 55-292 (19%)
2013/14: 26-198 (13%)
2012/13: 8-146 (5%)

Skelton’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
C Bailey (13-42 +£57)
Skelton’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Southwell (22-86 +£28); Fontwell (11-39 +£5); Uttoxeter (10-50 +£2)

Overview: Having ridden only eight winners during the 2012/13 season, Harry Skelton has showed big improvement during the last two seasons in recording back-to-back centuries. One area of profit for Skelton came in maidens where he struck at 43-183 (+£6).

PADDY BRENNAN

2016/17: 91-439 (21%)
2015/16: 75-463 (16%)
2014/15: 67-442 (15%)
2013/14: 77-527 (15%)
2012/13: 63-457 (14%)

Brennan’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
T George (chase 90-455 +£13); F O’Brien (78-478 +£38); C Tizzard (14-61 +£5)
Brennan’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Southwell (23-101 +£22); Stratford (17-85 +£25); Exeter (12-66 +£37)

Overview: Punters following Paddy Brennan last season would have been in clover as he recorded his second best tally of 91 winners for an impressive level stakes profit of +£140. As for where the profits emerged, then the best policy could be in following him when riding for either Tom George in chases, or Fergal O’ Brien.

TOM SCUDAMORE

2016/17: 99-470 (21%)
2015/16: 85-536 (16%)
2014/15: 150-685 (22%)
2013/14: 100-629 (16%)
2012/13: 85-546 (16%)

Scudamore’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
D Pipe (chase 98-446 +£35); D Bridgwater (chase 29-145 +£11); C Tizzard (12-32 +£38)
Scudamore’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Cheltenham (25-175 +£17); Market Rasen (22-103 +£27); Stratford (20-103 +£44)

Overview: Tom Scudamore fell just one short of a century last season and is one to note in chases for David Pipe and David Bridgwater (see above stats), while also one to rely on when riding a fancied runner at 10/11 or shorter (91-134 +£7).

RUBY WALSH (Ire only)

2016/17: 131-371 (35%)
2015/16: 105-350 (30%)
2014/15: 79-253 (31%)
2013/14: 122-403 (30%)
2012/13: 101-340 (30%)

Walsh’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
T Walsh 16-74 (+£7)
Walsh’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Clonmel 34-94 (+£36); Cork 31-95 (+£15)

Overview: Ruby Walsh recorded his joint-highest tally of 131 winners in Ireland last term, the majority of whom came for Willie Mullins. The popularity of the pair, however, made it hard for backers to make a clear profit, though applying a few rules helped show the way. For instance, sticking with Walsh/Mullins runners to have had 0-1 runs for the yard came in at 84-152 (+£12), while those dropping in trip by 4f-1m struck at 63-153 (+£31).

JACK KENNEDY (Ire only)

2016/17: 68-505 (13%)
2015/16: 44-299 (15%)

Kennedy’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
N/A
Kennedy’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Navan 10-43 (+£16)

Overview: One of Ireland’s rising stars in the saddle is Jack Kennedy, who finished second in the Jockeys' Championship last term and looks sure to have another good season ahead. However, despite Kennedy’s partnership with Gordon Elliott throwing up 80 winners during the last two seasons, the bookies have latched on as their tally returned a loss of -£124, suggesting punters should tread carefully when considering a Kennedy/Elliott runner.

PAUL TOWNEND (Ire only)

2016/17: 53-379 (14%)
2015/16: 37-246 (15%)
2014/15: 71-330 (22%)
2013/14: 55-381 (14%)
2012/13: 71-411 (17%)

Townend’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
Garrett James Power 11-44 (+£34); Tony Martin 15-63 (+£11)
Townend’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Kilbeggan 20-78 (+£22); Navan 13-86 (+£15); Ballinrobe 17-80 (+£11)

Overview: It was another consistent season for Paul Townend in 2016/17 courtesy of over 50 winners, and punters who spotted his ability in novice events during the last five campaigns would have come out in front to the tune of 67-276 (+£55).

MARK WALSH (Ire only)

2016/17: 59-392 (15%)
2015/16: 56-414 (14%)
2014/15: 75-396 (19%)
2013/14: 39-410 (10%)
2012/13: 32-357 (9%)

Walsh’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
Edward Harty 14-99 (+£18); Enda Bolger 18-75 (+£8)
Walsh’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Kilbeggan 22-105 (+£46); Ballinrobe 13-73 (+£9); Downpatrick 10-44 (+£6)

Overview: Mark Walsh made it a third 50+ tally last season, in the process reminding backers of his reliability when partnering a clear favourite, on which he delivered at 124-291 (+£37). Walsh also did well when getting down to a weight around 10st-10st5lb (14-87 +£13).

DAVY RUSSELL (Ire only)

2016/17: 60-374 (16%)
2015/16: 36-245 (15%)
2014/15: 51-398 (13%)
2013/14: 75-418 (18%)
2012/13: 103-549 (19%)

Russell’s profitable yards: (2012-2017):
Edward Harty 4-24 (+£28); Timothy Doyle 5-12 (+£27)
Russell’s profitable tracks (2012-2017):
Tramore 26-110 (+£28); Listowel 12-62 (+£9)

Overview: Davy Russell’s numbers may have dwindled in recent seasons, but he finished third in the Jockey’s Championship last season, and has followed-up by leading the current title race via 50 winners. There aren’t many specific areas that punters can focus on regarding Russell’s rides, though he did well on older runners aged 9yo+ (51-295 +£29).

Elsewhere, another jockey to keep tracks on this coming season is JJ Slevin, who had a breakthrough season last time around via 25 winners, and has already racked up 16 winners this term. The bookies don’t seem to have latched on either, as Slevin offers value on runners in the 7/1 to 20/1 bracket at 21-207 (+£71).

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